BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Winter Wren Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Winter Wren in Wisconsin has surged: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+100%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Winter Wren Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Winter Wren has surged in Wisconsin: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Winter Wren Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.28–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.93Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.28–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.910.271.6
20270.920.271.6
20280.920.281.6
20290.930.281.6
20300.930.281.6

Winter Wren Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Winter Wren in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Land O Lakes1420161967
Eagle River820251966
Grand View520251966
Popple River520251966
Washington I520251967
Conover520251998
Land O' Lakes 2520252017
Esdaile319751975
Montreal220251979
Amberg220231980
Wis Rapids220222022
Amnicon Falls220231998
Mellen220251998
Flambeau220241998
Gresham220251998
Chaffey120251969
Iron River120221967
Minong119961969
Bayfield120251970
Shanagolden120251969
Union Twp120172017
Loraine119791979
Cumberland119981997
Weyerhauser119951995
Couderay120171970

Winter Wren Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.