BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Winter Wren Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Winter Wren in Minnesota has surged: up 444% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+444%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Winter Wren Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Winter Wren has surged in Minnesota: up 444% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Winter Wren Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Minnesota is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.95–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.95–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Minnesota is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.95–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.853.0
20261.90.873.0
20272.00.903.0
20282.00.923.0
20292.00.953.1

Winter Wren Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Winter Wren in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glendale1620241993
Jordan1220231993
Crane Lake1020241969
Lockport720241967
Hart Lake720241967
Sawbill Camp720241993
Hovland620241973
Bigfork620241993
Red Lake620241993
Chisholm620242019
Sawbill Lndg520241973
Cromwell420241967
Cass Lake220141980
Backus220132013
Floodwood220241979
Sherry Lake220221979
Nett Lake220242013
Mahtowa220231993
Babbitt220231994
Money Creek119751975
Tamarac Nwr120091991
Nebish120191982
Wigwam Bay120212021
Pine River120142014
Glyndon120102010

Winter Wren Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemarylandmassachusettsmichigannew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.