BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Winter Wren Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesForest birds

Winter Wren in Connecticut has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+32%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Winter Wren Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Winter Wren in Connecticut. See the full index history below.

Winter Wren Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Connecticut is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Connecticut is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.000.45
20260.170.000.45
20270.170.000.45
20280.170.000.45
20290.170.000.45

Winter Wren Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Winter Wren in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Hartford320221997
Sherman220131972
Buckingham119741974
Uncasville119911991
Woodstock119961968
Westbrook119921992
Greenwich119751974
Danbury119761976
Warren120101972
Long Hill119741973
Mid Haddam120242018
Southington119991999
New Hartford119801980
Woodstock 2120212019
Granby120231989

Winter Wren Population Trend in Other States

mainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.