BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Winter Wren Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Winter Wren in New York has surged: up 482% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+482%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Winter Wren Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Winter Wren has surged in New York: up 482% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Winter Wren Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in New York is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.75–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.75–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in New York is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.75–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.692.6
20261.70.712.6
20271.70.722.7
20281.70.742.7
20291.70.752.7

Winter Wren Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Winter Wren in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Inlet3120171979
St Regis Fls1620171976
Old Forge1420061971
Newcomb1320221971
Gabriels1320241975
Old Forge 21320192007
Blue Ridge S1220101969
Dexter Lake1119751968
Sabattis1019831966
Parishville820241997
Horseshoe L.820171992
Wanakena720241980
Number Four519981971
Hope Falls519951968
Highmarket420241975
N Wilmurt419981969
Speculator420241966
Warrensburg420191967
Underwood419961967
Willsboro420241969
Meridale320242004
Platte Cove320181979
Swain320051971
Mckeever320231975
Kasoag320101971

Winter Wren Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.