BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Winter Wren Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Winter Wren in West Virginia has surged: up 320% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+320%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Winter Wren Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Winter Wren has surged in West Virginia: up 320% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Winter Wren Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in West Virginia is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.15–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in West Virginia is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.15–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.560.120.99
20270.560.130.99
20280.570.141.0
20290.580.141.0
20300.580.151.0

Winter Wren Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Winter Wren in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glade Run1820021988
Glade Run 2820252003
Glady320252003
Bemis220252001
Bismark220072007
Dailey120251973
Ghent120182018
Bowden120241996
Wymer120141995
Meadowville120191979
Canaan120221974
Valley Head119941994
Richwood120231980
Green Bank120241999

Winter Wren Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.