BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Winter Wren Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Winter Wren in West Virginia has surged: up 345% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+345%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Winter Wren Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Winter Wren has surged in West Virginia: up 345% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Winter Wren Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in West Virginia is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.17–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in West Virginia is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.17–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.141.0
20260.580.141.0
20270.580.151.0
20280.590.161.0
20290.600.171.0

Winter Wren Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Winter Wren in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glade Run1820021988
Glade Run 21420242003
Glady420242003
Bemis420242001
Dailey220241973
Bismark220072007
Ghent120182018
Bowden120241996
Wymer120141995
Meadowville120191979
Canaan120221974
Valley Head119941994
Richwood120231980
Green Bank120241999

Winter Wren Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.