BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Winter Wren Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesForest birds

Winter Wren in New Hampshire has risen sharply: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Winter Wren Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Winter Wren has risen sharply in New Hampshire: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Winter Wren Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in New Hampshire is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.4–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in New Hampshire is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.4–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.51.35.7
20273.51.35.7
20283.61.45.8
20293.61.45.8
20303.61.45.8

Winter Wren Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Winter Wren in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clarksville2020251966
Dixvil Notch1120171966
Dixville Notch 2720252018
Jeffers Ntch620251993
Franconia520251966
Glen520241975
Wilmot420251966
Jefferson Hl420251966
Milan420251966
Fitzwilliam320241972
Lempster320251972
Brentwood219951971
Hopkinton220231967
Epsom220231985
Mt Chocorua220241968
Walpole220251971
Marlow220241968
Peterborough120251974
Dover119941974
Concord120251969
Strafford120251967
Canterbury120241967
Gilmantn I W120251971
Crawford Not119751966
Stratford120251966

Winter Wren Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.