BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Winter Wren Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesForest birds

Winter Wren in New Hampshire has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+60%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Winter Wren Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Winter Wren has risen sharply in New Hampshire: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Winter Wren Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in New Hampshire is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 1.4–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in New Hampshire is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 1.4–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.61.45.8
20263.61.45.8
20273.61.45.8
20283.61.45.9
20293.71.45.9

Winter Wren Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Winter Wren in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clarksville1620241966
Jeffers Ntch1320241993
Dixville Notch 21320242018
Dixvil Notch1120171966
Jefferson Hl820241966
Franconia820241966
Milan520231966
Glen520241975
Wilmot420241966
Fitzwilliam320241972
Stratford320241966
Brentwood219951971
Hopkinton220231967
Epsom220231985
Gilmantn I W220241971
Mt Chocorua220241968
Walpole220241971
Marlow220241968
Peterborough120231974
Dover119941974
Concord120231969
Strafford120191967
Canterbury120241967
Lempster120241972
Crawford Not119751966

Winter Wren Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.