Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Trend in Virginia
Chestnut-sided Warbler in Virginia has surged: up 402% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
+402%Since 1969
27Routes In State
57Years
Notable Chestnut-sided Warbler Trends in Virginia
long arc increasecomputed index
Chestnut-sided Warbler has surged in Virginia: up 402% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia
If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-sided Warbler in Virginia is projected to rise about 384% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.26–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±237.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+384%Change by 2029
0.74Projected 2029 index
0.26–1.295% range
±237.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.70 | 0.22 | 1.2 |
| 2026 | 0.71 | 0.23 | 1.2 |
| 2027 | 0.72 | 0.24 | 1.2 |
| 2028 | 0.73 | 0.25 | 1.2 |
| 2029 | 0.74 | 0.26 | 1.2 |
Chestnut-sided Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia
| Iron Mountain 2 | 16 | 2013 | 2012 |
| Iron Mountain 3 | 6 | 2023 | 2014 |
| Tryme | 5 | 2000 | 1996 |
| Big Meadows | 5 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Mountain Lk. | 4 | 2018 | 1992 |
| Rural Retrt | 3 | 2016 | 1982 |
| Loft Mtn | 3 | 2019 | 1993 |
| Stanley | 2 | 1969 | 1969 |
| New Market | 2 | 2019 | 2005 |
| Nat Tunnel | 2 | 1996 | 1996 |
| Potts Mtn. | 2 | 2013 | 1993 |
| Elamsville | 2 | 1979 | 1979 |
| W Augusta | 1 | 2023 | 1968 |
| Bald Knob | 1 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Edinburg | 1 | 1993 | 1993 |
| Douthat | 1 | 2005 | 1992 |
| Isom | 1 | 1981 | 1979 |
| Putnam | 1 | 2011 | 1971 |
| Covington | 1 | 2022 | 1967 |
| Shenandoa Np | 1 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Iron Mtn. | 1 | 2011 | 1992 |
| Front Royal | 1 | 2018 | 1993 |
| Pine Mtn. | 1 | 2009 | 1999 |
| Saltville | 1 | 2013 | 1970 |
| Irisburg | 1 | 2004 | 2003 |
Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.