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Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Chestnut-sided Warbler in Ohio has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+78%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chestnut-sided Warbler Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chestnut-sided Warbler has surged in Ohio: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-sided Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.01–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-sided Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.01–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.010.11
20260.060.010.11
20270.060.010.11
20280.060.010.11
20290.060.010.11

Chestnut-sided Warbler Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Chestnut-sided Warbler in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mohican S.F.220241993
Hiram220001992
Napoleon119961996
Tar Hollow120221994
Pittsfield120231994
Wayland120162001
Garrettsvile119891989
Middlefield120041987
Strongsville119741974
Lenox120131976
Herner Crns119831983
Lucerne120152005
Westerville119781978
Fulton119831983
Baxter Ridge120132013
Newcomerstwn119941966
Dresden120221974
Omega120212010
Greasy Ridge119881988
Vickery120102010

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.