BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Chestnut-sided Warbler in Tennessee has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chestnut-sided Warbler Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chestnut-sided Warbler in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-sided Warbler in Tennessee is projected to rise about 157% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.03–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±335.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+157%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±335.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-sided Warbler in Tennessee is projected to rise about 157% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.03–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±335.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.030.43
20260.230.030.43
20270.230.030.43
20280.230.030.43
20290.230.030.43

Chestnut-sided Warbler Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Chestnut-sided Warbler in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tellico220241995
Newfound Gap220231990
Fish Springs220231966
Smokey Jct119961985
Signal Mtn119791979
Oliver Spgs120032003
Jones Gap120022002
Cades Cove120231989
Jasper120052005
Elk Valley120001972

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.