BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Chestnut-sided Warbler in North Carolina has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-11%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chestnut-sided Warbler Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chestnut-sided Warbler in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-sided Warbler in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.59 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-sided Warbler in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.59 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.001.9
20260.630.001.9
20270.610.001.9
20280.600.001.9
20290.590.001.9

Chestnut-sided Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Chestnut-sided Warbler in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N. Mills Riv3819951994
Highlands1020151994
Cullowhee920241974
Kyle820241994
Andrews819981994
Cherokee720242011
Linville720241976
Jonas Ridge519681968
Busick420021994
Murphy420152000
Todd420231995
Waterville320241994
Pinelog320062002
Marshall320241990
Brevard219961968
Craven Gap119751969
Fontana120171968
Copeland119691969
Call119711969
Sturgills120242010
French Broad River120242001
Hendersonvil120011996
Sawmill120182018
Oteen120131976

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.