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Species · Rhode Island · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Trend in Rhode Island

All statesForest birds

Chestnut-sided Warbler in Rhode Island has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chestnut-sided Warbler Trends in Rhode IslandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chestnut-sided Warbler has fallen sharply in Rhode Island: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Forecast in Rhode Island

If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-sided Warbler in Rhode Island is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-sided Warbler in Rhode Island is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.800.003.0
20260.760.002.9
20270.730.002.9
20280.700.002.9
20290.670.002.8

Chestnut-sided Warbler Survey Routes in Rhode Island

Routes recording Chestnut-sided Warbler in Rhode Island.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wallum Lake220211973
Quonset Pt120241966
Sachuest Pt119851974
Shannock120231973
Pulaski119921991
Casimir Pulaski Sf120162016

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.