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Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Chestnut-sided Warbler in West Virginia has surged: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+365%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chestnut-sided Warbler Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chestnut-sided Warbler has surged in West Virginia: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-sided Warbler in West Virginia is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.6–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-sided Warbler in West Virginia is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.6–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.53.6
20262.61.53.6
20272.61.63.7
20282.61.63.7
20292.71.63.7

Chestnut-sided Warbler Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Chestnut-sided Warbler in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Valley Head2920241966
Richwood2420241980
Glady2220242001
Green Bank1720241977
Clear Creek720011999
Bemis720242001
Pedro620231979
Dailey520241973
Meadowville520241972
Bowden420241993
Hanover320011998
Bismark320231976
Lost River320232023
Canaan320241974
Moundsville319781975
Mt Storm319731966
Bramwell220231980
Glade Run220021988
Mo Of Seneca220241980
Albright219741967
Yellow Spg220231993
Glade Run 2220242003
Hix119941972
Smoot120231986
Stollings120062004

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.