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Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Chestnut-sided Warbler in Indiana has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-10%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chestnut-sided Warbler Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chestnut-sided Warbler in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-sided Warbler in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-sided Warbler in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.10
20270.030.000.10
20280.020.000.10
20290.020.000.10
20300.020.000.10

Chestnut-sided Warbler Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Chestnut-sided Warbler in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Knox120252025
Clear Spring120072006
Hoosier120001999
Columbia Cty119811981
Packertown119781978
Ellis119771977
Portage 2120152005
Indiana Dune120161993
Packertown 2120162015
Thorntown119871987
Laporte120042001
Muncie119811981
Berne120252025
Belmont120152015

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.