BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Chestnut-sided Warbler in New York has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chestnut-sided Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chestnut-sided Warbler has surged in New York: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-sided Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 4.4–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–8.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-sided Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 4.4–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.34.38.3
20266.34.48.3
20276.44.48.3
20286.44.48.4
20296.44.48.4

Chestnut-sided Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Chestnut-sided Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Degrasse4420241980
Wanakena3620241980
S Berne 23420242014
Cattaraugus2620191971
Oneonta2520241968
Platte Cove2420181968
Mcdonough2320171967
Highmarket2320241969
Parishville2220241971
Dexter Lake2019751968
Alder Creek1920041969
Kasoag1820241966
Swain 21820242011
S Berne1720131967
Dryden1720241968
Phillips Cr1720241967
N Wilmurt1719981967
St Regis Fls1720171976
Pulaski1620241967
Speculator1620241966
Corbettsvile1520241966
Balmat1520081977
Downsville1520191982
Milford1520231978
Oxford 21520241977

Chestnut-sided Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.