BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in Virginia has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Virginia is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 9.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 2.3–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–9.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Virginia is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 9.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 2.3–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.22.99.6
20276.12.79.4
20285.92.69.3
20295.82.59.2
20305.72.39.0

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Blue Jay in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Churchville3120251966
Newbern2819821968
Fincastle2520251966
Stanley2420251966
Rural Retrt2320251982
Jerome2220251971
Stickleyvill2119901975
Hebron 21820252023
Star Tannery1720251977
Saltville1620251969
W Augusta1520251967
Great Falls1419781966
Clinchport1419781967
Cornland1420141975
Isom1320241969
Taylorstown 21320252012
Partlow1220151977
Putnam1220251969
Covington1220251966
Natural Brid1220251974
Blacksburg1220251988
Nat Tunnel1220251981
Hebron1120221981
Brandy Station1120252017
Dryden1120251991

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.