BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Virginia has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Virginia is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 7.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 2.3–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–8.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Virginia is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 7.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 2.3–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.22.99.5
20266.02.79.3
20275.92.69.2
20285.72.49.0
20295.62.38.9

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Blue Jay in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newbern2819821968
Covington2220241966
Fincastle2220241966
Stickleyvill2119901975
Churchville1920241966
Gladys1820241994
W Augusta1620241967
Brandy Station1620242017
Great Falls1419781966
Clinchport1419781967
Irisburg1420241976
Cornland1420141975
Hebron 21420242023
Isom1320241969
Partlow1220151977
Hall1220231967
Taylorstown 21220242012
Stanley1120241966
Shipman1120241969
Hebron1120221981
Star Tannery1020241977
Taylorstown1020101967
Natural Brid1020241974
Big Island1020241968
Backbay1019741966

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.