BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in Vermont has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 6.3–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 6.3–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026116.516
2027116.416
2028116.416
2029116.316
2030116.316

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Blue Jay in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North Pownal2620251966
Gaysville2420251966
Northfld Fls2420251980
Hardwick2320241966
Marlboro1820251966
East Calais1820251966
Newbury1620041986
Fletcher1520251968
East Haven1420251966
Waterville1419801967
W Rutland1320241966
Landgrove1220251966
Middlesex1220251968
Hinesburg1219941966
Stratton1120251966
Greensboro1120251967
Newbury 21120232005
S Reading1020241966
Shaftsbury720251966
Colchester720251986
Stowe620241988
St Johnsbury420251970
Bristol420251995
Post Mills320251966
S Wallingfrd220221966

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.