BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Vermont has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 6.3–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 6.3–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025116.516
2026116.416
2027116.416
2028116.316
2029116.316

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Blue Jay in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
East Calais2720241966
St Johnsbury2520241970
Hardwick2320241966
Northfld Fls2020211980
Middlesex1820241968
East Haven1720241966
Gaysville1620211966
Newbury1620041986
Greensboro1620241967
Stratton1420241966
Waterville1419801967
W Rutland1320241966
Hinesburg1219941966
Newbury 21120232005
S Reading1020241966
North Pownal920241966
Landgrove920241966
Post Mills920241966
Fletcher820241968
Bristol720181995
Marlboro620241966
Colchester620241986
Stowe620241988
Grand Isle420231967
Shaftsbury320241966

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.