BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in Maryland has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-32%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Maryland. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.1 (95% range 6.2–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.1 (95% range 6.2–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.36.412
20279.26.312
20289.26.312
20299.16.212
20309.16.212

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Blue Jay in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheaton3620251990
Olney3120251966
Largo2719811966
Tall Timbers2620141966
Eklo2520181966
Sinepuxent2519781966
Earlton2320242014
Beltsville2220121966
Emmitsburg2120251966
Ijamsville2020251986
La Plata1920091966
Harmony1920171966
Warfieldsbrg1820251966
Wolfsville1720251967
Van Bibber1720131966
Bald Friar1719961992
Upper Xrds1620081966
St. George'S Island1620172015
Jennings1520251995
Pleasant Val1420251966
Williamsport1320251966
Easton1320251966
Madonna1320222009
Bachman Mill1220251966
Norwood1120121966

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.