BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in South Carolina has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in South Carolina is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.3–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.3–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in South Carolina is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.3–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025151021
20261510.020
2027159.720
2028159.520
2029159.320

Blue Jay Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Blue Jay in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Salem Xrd4420191982
New Holland4320241967
New Ellenton4020242010
Prosperity4020241992
Walterboro3520171970
Pinewood3220191998
Pendleton2919761966
Wagener2820241966
Chesnee2820151992
Foreston2620211966
Little Mtn2619881966
Plum Branch2620241977
Mount Pisgah2620211998
Landrum2419921972
Boykin Ml Pd2319671966
Carvers Bay2320121998
Rome2220241967
Green Sea2120242010
Adams Run2120241988
Owings2020041992
Ward2020212017
Holly Hill1920241972
Salem1920242010
Bishopville1820241970
Boiling Spgs1819791967

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.