BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in South Carolina has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in South Carolina is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.4–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.4–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in South Carolina is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.4–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026161021
20271510.021
2028159.820
2029159.620
2030159.420

Blue Jay Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Blue Jay in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Holland6920251967
New Ellenton5920252010
Salem Xrd4420191982
Ward4120252017
Prosperity4020241992
Coward3220251966
Pinewood3220191998
Pendleton2919761966
Mount Pisgah2920251998
Chesnee2820151992
Little Mtn2619881966
Rome2420251967
Holly Hill2420251972
Landrum2419921972
Boykin Ml Pd2319671966
Green Sea2320252010
Carvers Bay2320121998
Sandhills2120251994
Owings 22120252005
Owings2020041992
Plum Branch2020251977
Wagener1820251966
Boiling Spgs1819791967
Barton Creek1720221967
Nixonville1719951987

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.