BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Ohio has risen sharply: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has risen sharply in Ohio: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 9.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.8–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 9.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025139.416
2026139.516
2027139.616
2028139.716
2029139.816

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Blue Jay in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ashley3620181988
Tecumseh3219821966
Lucerne3020241992
Kenton2720241966
West Elkton2720121992
Marion 22620242024
Pittsfield2320241992
Marion2320231966
Harveysburg2019961966
Hebron2020241966
Ash Ridge2020211992
Valley City2020241995
Harveysburg 22020241997
Tick Ridge2020191993
Garrettsvile1919911966
Lattasburg1920241966
Enon1920241984
Rome1720241966
Bloomville1620241992
Westerville1619851966
Darrtown1620211966
Stonecreek1620241996
Mohican S.F.1620241992
Bismark1519951967
Norwalk1520241979

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.