BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in Ohio has surged: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+84%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has surged in Ohio: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 13 (95% range 9.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.8–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 13 (95% range 9.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026139.516
2027139.616
2028139.716
2029139.716
2030139.816

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Blue Jay in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ashley3620181988
Tecumseh3219821966
Marion 23220252024
Smithfield2920251968
West Elkton2720121992
Valley City2420251995
Pittsfield2320241992
Marion2320231966
Mohican S.F.2220251992
Harveysburg2019961966
Ash Ridge2020211992
Tick Ridge2020191993
Garrettsvile1919911966
Baxter Ridge1920251998
Enon1920251984
Hebron1820251966
Kenton1720251966
Stonecreek1720251996
Westerville1619851966
Darrtown1620211966
Bismark1519951967
Kalida1520251966
Fulton1520251966
Norwalk1520241979
Vickery1520251996

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.