BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Indiana

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Indiana has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+3%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Indiana is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 3.8–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–9.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Indiana is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 3.8–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.04.010
20267.04.09.9
20276.93.99.9
20286.83.99.8
20296.83.89.8

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Blue Jay in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Portage 24320242005
New Phila3220241982
South Bend2319911966
Clear Spring2120241981
Knox2020241981
Brookville1920241967
Belmont1620241981
Ellis1520241966
Monticello1520241981
New Castle1520242002
Lakeville1520241993
Vevay1420241966
Washington1320241987
Scottsburg1320241982
Spencer1220241967
Azalia1220241982
Celestine1220241979
Indian Spgs1120241982
Witts Station1120242000
Middletown1020241966
Swayzee1020231981
Shelbyville1020241983
Millersburg1020241981
Packertown 21020242005
Muncie919971981

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.