BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in Indiana has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Indiana is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 7.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 3.8–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–9.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Indiana is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 7.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 3.8–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.04.010.0
20277.04.09.9
20286.93.99.9
20296.83.99.8
20306.83.89.7

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Blue Jay in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South Bend2319911966
Witts Station2220252000
Portage 22120252005
Brookville2020251967
New Phila2020251982
Belmont1620241981
Knox1520251981
Ellis1520241966
Monticello1520251981
Jamestown1520251986
Washington1520251987
New Castle1520242002
Lakeville1520241993
Middletown1420251966
Anderson1320252000
Spencer1220241967
Scottsburg1220251982
Azalia1120251982
Clear Spring1120251981
Millersburg1020241981
Georgia1020251999
Galveston920251981
Muncie919971981
Laporte920241999
Lagrange920251999

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.