BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in North Carolina is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 1.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in North Carolina is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 1.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.12.112
20266.81.912
20276.51.611
20286.31.311
20296.01.111

Blue Jay Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Blue Jay in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shallotte5319911966
Cherryville3519681966
Bethel3320242002
Myrtle Grove3220241966
Wards Corner3220241966
Genoa3020241990
Hamlet2920241995
Cypress Lakes2920242004
Fairmont2419811968
Oakboro2320241969
Rheasville2220172005
Congleton2220242001
Wilgrove2020241995
Arapahoe1919951966
Eden1920241987
Beargrass1819811966
Speed1720241966
Brevard1720241968
Kinston1620241966
Lake Surf1620241998
Rowland1520241990
Montague1520241990
South. Pines1519961995
Belgrade1520192010
Cypress Cr1420221990

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.