BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in North Carolina is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 1.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in North Carolina is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 1.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.12.112
20276.81.812
20286.61.612
20296.31.311
20306.11.111

Blue Jay Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Blue Jay in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shallotte5319911966
Cherryville3519681966
Cypress Lakes3320252004
Wards Corner3220241966
Genoa2720251990
Raeford2620251990
Fairmont2419811968
Jordan2420251966
Hamlet2420251995
Climax2220251966
Rheasville2220172005
Oakboro2020251969
Sawmill2020251990
Arapahoe1919951966
Eden1920251987
Flay1920251990
Durham1920251990
Beargrass1819811966
Lake Surf1820251998
Myrtle Grove1720251966
Brevard1720251968
Kinston1620241966
Bethel1620252002
Rowland1520241990
South. Pines1519961995

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.