BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Minnesota has surged: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+88%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has surged in Minnesota: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.2 (95% range 6.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.2 (95% range 6.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.06.212
20269.06.212
20279.16.312
20289.16.312
20299.26.312

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Blue Jay in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chisholm3220242019
Hart Lake2420241967
Sherry Lake2420221969
Le Roy2420241993
Brook Park2420241998
Glendale2320241993
Edwards2120241973
Blackduck2120222004
Lockport2020241967
Oklee2020211969
Chatfield 22020242003
Lude1920231978
Mahtowa1820231993
Arlington1720231967
St Stephen1720161967
Debs1720241969
Nett Lake1720242013
Knapp1620241967
Cromwell1620241967
Hovland1620241973
Bena1619771967
Brainerd1620241993
Sherburne Nr1620241990
Evergreen1520241967
Princeton1420241969

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.