BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in Minnesota has surged: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+75%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has surged in Minnesota: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.2 (95% range 6.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.4–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.2 (95% range 6.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.16.312
20279.16.312
20289.16.312
20299.26.412
20309.26.412

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Blue Jay in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chisholm3220242019
Knapp3120251967
Hart Lake2720251967
Sherry Lake2420221969
Minnetonka2120251969
Edwards2120241973
Crane Lake2120251969
Blackduck2120222004
Oklee2020211969
Debs2020251969
Brook Park2020251998
Mahtowa1820231993
Chatfield 21820252003
Nett Lake1720242013
Millville1620251967
Evergreen1620251967
Bena1619771967
Brainerd1620241993
Osseo1520251968
Pine River1520251967
Glendale1520251993
Cohasset1420221973
Austin1420231993
Bagley1420061995
St Stephen1320251967

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.