BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Louisiana has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 23 (95% range 18–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 23 (95% range 18–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025231828
2026231828
2027231828
2028231828
2029231828

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Blue Jay in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Junior7119911987
Fishville 25420242018
Longstreet5220241967
Pearl River5020241989
Mamou4919821967
Bickham4520241972
Greensburg4420221988
Brousville4320241998
Roseland4120241967
Clay4020241968
Plettenberg3820221968
Mayflower3820241967
Carlisle3719881968
Hackberry 23720242018
Rayville 23720242009
Fishville3420171967
Gonzales3220191998
Ville Platte3220191988
Goodwill3220242004
Easton2919901967
Fort Jessup2920231998
Pine Prairie2919971995
Keystone2820131967
Zwolle2820231998
Baton Rouge2820241995

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.