BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Florida has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Florida. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Florida is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 12–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Florida is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 12–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025171222
2026171222
2027171222
2028171222
2029161221

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Blue Jay in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovedale10120111987
Miller Xrds7620191987
New Hope5020112009
Ocala4920241987
Laurel Hill4720242010
Seminole Hills 24720222002
Blountstown4520241966
Alturas4319861971
Blackwater4020241987
Myakka Head3920111966
Ridge Harbor3720241991
Pleasant Gr3620091987
Hildreth3420091987
Mabel3320111966
Childs3320221966
Betts3220241987
Flemington3219991987
Mt. Olive3220242002
Miccosukee3120241966
Dale Mabry3119881966
Citrus3120242010
Davie3020171987
Dowling Park2820231987
Gardner2819991987
Mabel 22520192012

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.