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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in Florida has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Florida. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Florida is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Florida is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026171222
2027161121
2028161121
2029161121
2030161121

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Blue Jay in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovedale10120111987
Miller Xrds7620191987
New Hope5020112009
Seminole Hills 24720222002
Alturas4319861971
Myakka Head3920111966
Mt. Olive3820252002
Pleasant Gr3620091987
Laurel Hill3520252010
Hildreth3420091987
Miccosukee3320251966
Hilliard3320251966
Mabel3320111966
Childs3320221966
Flemington3219991987
Dale Mabry3119881966
Ridge Harbor3120251991
Davie3020171987
Citrus Park2920251989
Gardner2819991987
Croom2720251987
Blackwater2620251987
Eglin A.F.B.2520111995
Salvista2419791967
Boca Raton2419941968

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.