BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in New York has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+20%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in New York. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in New York is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 10.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10.0–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in New York is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 10.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025129.915
2026129.915
2027129.915
2028129.915
20291210.015

Blue Jay Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Blue Jay in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Manorville7020241966
Hauppauge5820181966
Jones Beach3820131966
Warrensburg3620191966
Naples3620241966
Dryden3020241966
Orleans2820241967
Balmat2720081977
Meridale2620241967
Mckeever2620221969
Parishville2620241968
Westhampton2420241967
Huntington2420231966
Mcdonough2420171967
Hopkinton2320211968
Inlet2220171979
Degrasse2220241980
Catskills2120151967
Oneonta2120241968
Somers2019771970
Trumansburg2020241966
Penfield2020241968
Highmarket2020241967
S Berne 22020242014
Oxford1919761967

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.