BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in Georgia

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in Georgia has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has fallen sharply in Georgia: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Georgia is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 6.9–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.9–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Georgia is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 6.9–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026188.427
2027178.027
2028177.626
2029177.326
2030166.926

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Blue Jay in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ousley5420252015
Tazewell5220251967
Newton4620251975
Cotton4520251972
Guyton4219931966
Fairplay4019911966
Douglas4019841978
Lincolnton3720171966
Henderson3620251973
Boston3620251975
Shiloh3620252012
Workmore3320251978
Bethany3320252012
Fitzgerald3220251966
Baxter3220221975
Pitts3120251977
White Hill3120252005
Dover3020251976
Lakeview3020252006
Cuthbert2820251967
Nashville2820251975
Shannon2820191975
Union2820242011
Fowlstown2720161967
Lacross2620251973

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.