BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Georgia

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Georgia has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has fallen sharply in Georgia: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Georgia is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 7.0–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Georgia is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 7.0–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025188.527
2026188.227
2027177.827
2028177.426
2029167.026

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Blue Jay in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shiloh5720242012
Cotton5120241972
Ousley5020242015
Bethany4520242012
Newton4420241975
Guyton4219931966
Boston4220241975
Fairplay4019911966
Rutledge4020241975
Douglas4019841978
Cuthbert3720241967
Lincolnton3720171966
Workmore3620191978
Union3520232011
Henderson3420241973
Baxter3220221975
Lakeview3120242006
Davis Crossroads3120212011
Fitzgerald2920241966
Dover2920241976
Cartersville2820241966
Shannon2820191975
Pitts2820241977
Good Hope2820242005
Fowlstown2720161967

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.