BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Michigan has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+34%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251310.017
2026131017
2027131017
2028131017
2029131017

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Blue Jay in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hamtramck4319841978
Cohoctah3420242021
Red Oak3320221975
Brush Creek3220161974
Cunard3120211973
Belding 23120242004
Hamburg2920011981
Cluster Lakes2920102006
Frederic 22620172004
Big Island Lake2420102008
Gooseneck2420102008
Ishpeming2320231980
Homer2320241975
Herron2320162011
Big Blue Lk2220241979
Harrietta2220241990
Walloon Lake 22220242005
Lapeer2220242000
Nashville2120241968
Frederic2120031971
Marenisco2020191981
Skegemog Pt2020241974
Beaver Lake2020111967
Pettysville2019791969
Mayfield2020222000

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.