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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in Michigan has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Michigan is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Michigan is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026141017
2027141017
2028141017
2029141017
2030141017

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Blue Jay in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hamtramck4319841978
Ishpeming3620251980
Brocky Lake3320251980
Red Oak3320221975
Sand Lake3320251978
Brush Creek3220161974
Gibbs City3120251979
Cunard3120211973
Galesburg3020251966
Hamburg2920011981
Cluster Lakes2920102006
Scottville2820251968
Mayfield2720252000
Frederic 22620172004
Big Island Lake2420102008
Gooseneck2420102008
Ned Lake2320251986
Homer2320241975
Herron2320162011
Crystal Fls2220251979
Cohoctah2220252021
Walloon Lake 22220242005
Sidnaw2220251993
Frederic2120031971
Marenisco2020191981

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.