BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in Texas has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
141Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has risen sharply in Texas: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.7 (95% range 2.3–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.7 (95% range 2.3–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.72.37.0
20274.72.37.0
20284.72.37.0
20294.72.37.0
20304.72.37.0

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Blue Jay in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Diboll7020251968
Easton 24120252014
Mt. Selman3920251998
Powell Park3520211995
Athens3320251968
Morton3220251970
Chandler3120041968
Port Acres3120251994
Chandler 23020242005
Union Hill2820241994
Cayuga2720251996
Neches Bith2720172016
Caledonia2620251969
Smyrna2620101995
Crossroads2420251967
Alexander St2320251995
Weches2220251995
Easton2220131994
New Waverly2120251969
Lydia1720251967
Liberty Hill1720251968
Hearne1720251998
Wills Point1720231994
Lance Rosier Bith1720192014
Oakwood1619951967

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.