BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Texas has increased: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+50%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Texas. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.6 (95% range 2.3–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.6 (95% range 2.3–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.62.37.0
20264.62.37.0
20274.62.37.0
20284.62.37.0
20294.62.37.0

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Blue Jay in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. Selman5420241998
Diboll4520241968
Morton3720241970
Athens3720241968
Powell Park3520211995
Easton 23520242014
Crossroads3220241967
Chandler3120041968
Chandler 23020242005
Weches3020241995
Union Hill2820241994
Neches Bith2720172016
Caledonia2620241969
Smyrna2620101995
New Waverly2520241969
Powell Park 22420242022
Alexander St2320241995
Port Acres2220241994
Easton2220131994
Livingston2020241969
Miller Grove1720241967
Wills Point1720231994
Lance Rosier Bith1720192014
Oakwood1619951967
Town Bluff1520241967

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.