BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Maine

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Maine has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Maine. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Maine is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 5.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Maine is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 5.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.35.513
20269.35.513
20279.35.413
20289.25.413
20299.25.413

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Blue Jay in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pillsbury Pd4119681968
Reeds2720241983
Rome2620241996
Northfield2519811976
Harmony2420241967
Hudson2420161973
Brooks2320191977
Aurora2320211975
Eastbrook1920241971
Forest Sta1920001966
Greenwood1620241966
Washburn1620051979
Otisfield Gr1520151966
East Troy1520191972
Carrying Pl1520241979
Charleston1520191975
Benedicta1520221976
Searsport1520242002
Brownfield1520092009
Ashland1420081980
St David1420051982
Turner 21420242011
Andover1420212010
Waite1319771977
Yankeetuladi1320081994

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.