BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.2 (95% range 5.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.2 (95% range 5.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.95.712
20278.85.512
20288.65.412
20298.45.212
20308.25.011

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Blue Jay in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goshen3819991966
Sewell Shop3720251966
Staffordsvil3619971996
Paintsville3119951979
Cumberlnd Gp2420181966
Buena Vista2220171966
Mammoth Cave North2120132009
Plum1820251966
Pippa Passes1619971988
Boxville1619831966
East Union1620251966
Daniel Boone1519881966
Levee 21520192007
Shelbyville1419781966
Glencoe1420221966
Levee1219821966
Johnsonville1220211966
Pleasurevill1220251979
Million 21220242006
Bays Fork1120191999
Phelps1119971979
Hodgenville 21120232008
Pine Ridge1019781966
Mcbrayer1020251966
Gatewood1020191966

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.