BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Alabama has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Alabama is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 8.0–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.0–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Alabama is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 8.0–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025159.521
2026159.121
2027158.820
2028148.420
2029148.020

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Blue Jay in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eufaula5520241996
Foley5219841966
St. Elmo4420211996
Georgetown4320241994
Fairview4220241989
Choccolocco4220241984
Grangeburg4020241966
Brundidge4020211966
Alabama Pt3920031966
Dearmanville3719831966
Brantley3720241966
Millry3720231970
Warrior Std3620241966
Rock Chapel3620241995
Newton3520241966
Perdido3520242021
Mt Olive3420241966
Epes3320241980
Liberty City 23320242017
Stevenson3320241996
Dawson3119981966
Dauphin Is 23120191991
Elberta3120221986
Madrid3020231994
Dauphin Is2919901966

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

arkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.