BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in West Virginia has surged: up 227% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+227%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has surged in West Virginia: up 227% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in West Virginia is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 9.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.5–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in West Virginia is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 9.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026118.913
2027119.113
2028119.214
2029129.314
2030129.514

Blue Jay Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Blue Jay in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Welch3520251980
Slate2720251980
Monongah2420221969
Clinton2420251966
Rockport2020251966
Hix1820251970
Fayetteville1619961980
Canaan1520251974
Green Bank1520251977
Sleepy Creek1519901966
Martinsburg1520251967
Hanover1220251980
Denmar1220251980
Sugar Grove1220251966
Hubbardstown1120251966
Meadland1120251997
Josephs Mill1120241993
Ringgold1120252025
Glade Run 21120252003
Lost River1120251996
Shanghai1120251995
Stollings1020211986
Pedro920251979
Ghent920251978
Arlee919791966

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.