BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in West Virginia has surged: up 230% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+230%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has surged in West Virginia: up 230% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in West Virginia is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 8.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.4–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.4–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in West Virginia is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 8.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.4–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025118.913
2026119.013
2027119.214
2028129.314
2029129.414

Blue Jay Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Blue Jay in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Slate2720241980
Paradise2420231966
Monongah2420221969
Hix2320241970
Bramwell2220231978
Clear Creek2020241988
Washburn2020221974
Clinton1820241966
Fayetteville1619961980
Sutton1520241976
Rockport1520241966
Sleepy Creek1519901966
Pedro1420241979
Hubbardstown1420231966
Shanghai1320221995
Ghent1220241978
Bismark1220231976
Hanover1120241980
Welch1120231980
Spencer1120231986
Denmar1120241980
Josephs Mill1120241993
Smithfield1120241993
Lost River1120231996
Stollings1020211986

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.