BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in Oklahoma has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-30%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.6 (95% range 2.1–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.6 (95% range 2.1–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.82.35.3
20273.82.25.3
20283.72.25.2
20293.72.15.2
20303.62.15.2

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Blue Jay in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pocola1920161992
Goodwater1620211992
Sandbluff1420251992
Wainwright1320131992
Keetonville1320221992
Heyburn1120251992
Colony1019951995
Ouachita Nf1020251991
Phillips920251969
Mill Creek920251967
Indianola920241967
Barnsdall919771967
Bartlesville920251967
Colcord920221992
Big Cedar820241967
Mcalester819901967
Canadian820171967
Holdenville820251967
Matoy820251992
Beggs520231967
Collinsville520211967
Douglas520221974
Hollis520251993
Pushmataha520231994
Welch420251967

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.