BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Oklahoma has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-33%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.1–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.1–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.82.35.4
20263.82.35.4
20273.82.25.3
20283.72.25.3
20293.72.15.2

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Blue Jay in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pocola1920161992
Goodwater1620211992
Wainwright1320131992
Keetonville1320221992
Mill Creek1020181967
Colony1019951995
Indianola920241967
Barnsdall919771967
Ouachita Nf920241991
Hollis920241993
Colcord920221992
Big Cedar820241967
Mcalester819901967
Canadian820171967
Sandbluff819951992
Noble720241967
Welch720241967
Bethel720241993
Bartlesville620241967
Matoy620001992
Beggs520231967
Collinsville520211967
Douglas520221974
Heyburn520241992
Pushmataha520231994

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.