BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in New Hampshire has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in New Hampshire. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in New Hampshire is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 3.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in New Hampshire is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 3.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.04.114
20268.83.914
20278.63.713
20288.43.513
20298.23.313

Blue Jay Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Blue Jay in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wilmot2020241966
Lempster2020241966
Marlow1420241966
Dover1320241966
Franconia1220241966
Brentwood1119981966
East Kingston1020241999
Dixville Notch 21020242018
Hopkinton720241966
Dixvil Notch720171966
Fitzwilliam620241966
Epsom620231966
Walpole620241966
Strafford520241966
Gilmantn I W520241969
Glen520241975
Concord420241966
Canterbury420241966
Jefferson Hl420241966
Milan420241966
Clarksville420241966
Peterborough320241966
Mt Chocorua320241966
Jeffers Ntch320241994
Crawford Not219751966

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.