BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in Missouri has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Missouri is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.6–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.6–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Missouri is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.6–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.916
2027127.816
2028127.716
2029127.616
2030127.616

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Blue Jay in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emden3820242017
Eugene3720252013
Marshfield3220231994
Gildehouse3219891978
Osage Beach3020251997
Akers2820251967
Kingsville2820251992
Ironton2719801972
New Point2620251994
House Springs2620252017
Union2519991990
Clementine2420021974
Bolckow2419921967
Centertown2320251973
Miller2320252014
Kahoka2219981967
Richland2220252014
Hayden2120251975
Kahoka22120242002
Huntsville2020251967
Williamsvill2020251994
Kearney2020251994
Kirksville2020251994
Lincoln2020252013
Gerald2020252013

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.