BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Missouri has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Missouri is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.5–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.5–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Missouri is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.5–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.916
2026127.816
2027127.716
2028127.616
2029127.516

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Blue Jay in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lucerne4520212016
Eugene4020242013
Emden3820242017
Marshfield3220231994
Osage Beach3220241997
Gildehouse3219891978
Moselle2820242000
Ironton2719801972
Kingsville2620241992
Woodlandville2520242013
Union2519991990
Pulaski2420241974
Clementine2420021974
Bolckow2419921967
Doe Run2420242015
Richland2320212014
Sweden2220241968
Huntsville2220241967
Kahoka2219981967
Mcfall2220241994
West Plains2220242014
Reeds2120231974
New Point2120241994
Kahoka22120242002
Graydon2020241967

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.