BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in North Dakota has surged: up 207% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+207%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has surged in North Dakota: up 207% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in North Dakota is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in North Dakota is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.610.001.3
20260.610.001.3
20270.610.001.3
20280.610.001.3
20290.610.001.3

Blue Jay Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Blue Jay in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emerado1220241973
Cooperstown620241970
Abercrombie 2620162014
Kempton420171972
Nash320171980
Abercrombie320121967
Turtle Mtns320241980
Solen320232005
Forman220231968
Sydney219831970
Wimbledon219961994
Buchanan220151980
Rolla220042002
Niles220011992
Sheyenne Lk220031991
Braddock220151990
Montpelier220111990
Walcott120211968
Edgeley120241990
Lake George120111973
Horsehead Lk120061981
Bowesmont119951970
Lakota119941971
Webster120071989
Regan120051980

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.