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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Mississippi has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Mississippi. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Mississippi is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 14–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Mississippi is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 14–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025221529
2026221528
2027221528
2028211528
2029211428

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Blue Jay in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt Carmel7720161974
Leaf River7320132008
Beverly5120111966
Amite River4920132008
Neely4720121974
Walthall4019871970
Necaise4020221982
De Soto3820192008
Diberville3819871979
Forest3720241972
Lake3720241966
Scooba3719821967
Duffee3720081973
Waynesboro3720101966
Trace Lorman3520192016
Okatibbee L.3320081995
Monticello3120172007
Trace South3120192007
Trace Hinds3120222014
Sandy Creek3020001993
Star2920242016
Isola2820221968
Cybur2720191966
Vicksburg Np2620212016
Columbia2520181969

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.