BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in Kansas has surged: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+79%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has surged in Kansas: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Kansas is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.7–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.7–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Kansas is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.7–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026128.415
2027128.515
2028128.515
2029128.615
2030128.715

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Blue Jay in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Covert9320251967
Kanopolis5020251967
Seneca3420221967
Jewell 22520252006
Jewell2420051967
Grantville2120221967
Dover2020221967
Minneapolis2020191967
Galesburg1820251967
Rock Creek 21820252022
Wreford1720241967
Olathe1520211967
Phillipsburg1520251967
Melrose1420231967
Humboldt1420221968
Bucyrus1420252022
Severance1420252000
Wellington1320251968
Hanover1320251969
Pittsburg1320212000
Berwet1320252000
Gray1220191967
Hollenberg1120251969
Goessel1120252000
Beloit1120032000

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.