BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Kansas has risen sharply: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+67%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Jay has risen sharply in Kansas: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 8.4–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.4–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 8.4–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025118.214
2026118.314
2027118.315
2028118.415
2029128.415

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Blue Jay in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Covert7820241967
Kanopolis5120241967
Jewell 23720242006
Seneca3420221967
Jewell2420051967
Grantville2120221967
Dover2020221967
Minneapolis2020191967
Bucyrus1920242022
Wreford1720241967
Wellington1520241968
Olathe1520211967
Phillipsburg1520221967
Melrose1420231967
Humboldt1420221968
Pittsburg1320212000
Gray1220191967
Hollenberg1120231969
Beloit1120032000
Buckeye1020231967
Beloit 21020182005
Morehead1020242000
Jamestown1020242000
Dalton920241968
Le Loup920212000

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.