BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Nebraska has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+12%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Nebraska is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.4–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Nebraska is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.4–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.31.57.1
20264.31.57.1
20274.31.57.1
20284.31.57.0
20294.21.47.0

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Blue Jay in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt2620242018
Murdock2520242018
Johnson1920241967
Midway1520231967
Tilden1420242019
Red Cloud1320242018
Thurston1220241967
Liberty 31220242009
Berwyn 21220212014
Kearney1120241968
Bartlett1119761967
Brady1120241980
Sparta920211967
Winside920031967
Boelus920222018
Seward720241967
Surprise720241967
Julian620241969
Liberty620031967
Belvidere620241967
Irvington620241967
Ponca620242018
Hendley620242018
Gretna 2620242019
Winside 2620222005

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.