BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in Nebraska has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+7%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Nebraska is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.5–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Nebraska is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.5–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.41.67.1
20274.31.67.1
20284.31.57.1
20294.31.57.1
20304.31.57.0

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Blue Jay in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt3120252018
Brady2620251980
Tilden1720252019
Hampton1420252018
Gretna 21420252019
Red Cloud1320242018
Madison1220252019
Murdock1220252018
Bartlett1119761967
Irvington1020251967
Petersburg1020251969
Pine Ridge1020251999
Hendley1020252018
Johnson920251967
Winside920031967
Boelus920222018
Belvidere820251967
Kenesaw820251967
Sumner820251969
Sparta820251967
Crawford820251982
Surprise720251967
Richland720251968
Midway720251967
Julian620251969

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.