BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Arkansas has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Arkansas is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 9.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.5–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Arkansas is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 9.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.015
2026116.815
2027116.715
2028116.615
2029106.514

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Blue Jay in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell4920182010
Russell3620212010
Blakely2819991968
Coal Hill2520231967
South Bend2320231967
Saffell2220191967
Locust Bayou2020231967
Whitton2019911967
Zion1920241967
Compton1920221967
Augusta 21820162002
Stark1620241967
Fulton1620241967
Springhill1620222010
Rudy1620242011
Stamps1520241967
Ramsey1419971967
England1420242010
Nance1420241992
Wilson1420241993
Harrisburg1320191967
Augusta1320011967
Hickory Ridge1220222010
Stephens1220242010
Crowley'S Ridge1220242011

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.