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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in Arkansas has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Arkansas is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 9.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Arkansas is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 9.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026116.715
2027116.615
2028106.514
2029106.314
2030106.214

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Blue Jay in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell4920182010
Russell3620212010
Blakely2819991968
Coal Hill2520231967
Saffell2220191967
Locust Bayou2020231967
Whitton2019911967
Zion2020251967
Compton1920221967
Maynard1820251967
Augusta 21820162002
Springhill1620222010
Stamps1520241967
Ramsey1419971967
Stark1420251967
England1420252010
Stephens1420252010
Old Milo1320251967
Harrisburg1320191967
Augusta1320011967
Sims1320252010
South Bend1220251967
Fulton1220251967
Hickory Ridge1220222010
Eudora1120251967

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.