BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Tennessee has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Tennessee is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 5.2–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Tennessee is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 5.2–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.26.012
20269.05.812
20278.85.612
20288.65.412
20298.45.212

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Blue Jay in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovell5020191966
Corryton Rd4620191966
Mt Olive3920241966
Climer3320041967
Jefferson Cty3020111966
Moscow2520241966
Mansfield2520241966
Humboldt2520241966
Peytonsville2520241966
Red Bank2219781966
Tibbs1820241966
Big Sandy1720241966
Indian Mound1719981966
Wrigley1720221966
White House1720191966
Brownsville1620241966
Collinwood1620241966
Trenton1520231966
Soddy1519811967
Mecca1420231994
Allens Brdge1220231966
Trace Collinwood1220182015
Jones Gap1220191982
Oliver Spgs1120221966
Trace Lewis1120172013

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.