BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Blue Jay in Tennessee has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Jay Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Tennessee is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 5.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Tennessee is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 5.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.15.912
20278.95.712
20288.75.512
20298.55.312
20308.35.112

Blue Jay Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Blue Jay in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovell5020191966
Humboldt4720251966
Corryton Rd4620191966
Mt Olive3920241966
Climer3320041967
Jefferson Cty3020111966
Red Bank2219781966
Moscow2120251966
Peytonsville2120251966
Brownsville1720251966
Mansfield1720251966
Indian Mound1719981966
Wrigley1720221966
White House1720191966
Tibbs1520251966
Trenton1520231966
Soddy1519811967
Mecca1420231994
Allens Brdge1220231966
Trace Collinwood1220182015
Jones Gap1220191982
Oliver Spgs1120221966
Trace Lewis1120172013
Big Sandy1020251966
Silerton1020241966

Blue Jay Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.