BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Canada Warbler in Virginia has surged: up 266% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+266%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Warbler has surged in Virginia: up 266% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Canada Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.07–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±191.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.07–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.060.38
20260.220.060.38
20270.230.070.39
20280.230.070.39
20290.230.070.39

Canada Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Canada Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mountain Lk.420181992
Potts Mtn.219921992
Iron Mtn.220111992
Iron Mountain 3220232014
Marion119771976
W Augusta120232012
Bald Knob120221992
Gr North Mtn120132013
Rural Retrt120142014
Shenandoa Np120241994
Covington119671967
Big Meadows120241995
Front Royal120022000
Pine Mtn.120102010
Iron Mountain 2120132012

Canada Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.