BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Canada Warbler in Virginia has surged: up 262% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+262%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Warbler in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Canada Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Virginia is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.07–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±171.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Virginia is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.07–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.220.060.38
20270.220.070.38
20280.230.070.39
20290.230.070.39
20300.230.070.39

Canada Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Canada Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mountain Lk.420181992
Big Meadows420251995
Shenandoa Np320251994
Gr North Mtn220252013
Potts Mtn.219921992
Iron Mtn.220111992
Iron Mountain 3220232014
Marion119771976
W Augusta120232012
Bald Knob120221992
Rural Retrt120142014
Covington119671967
Front Royal120022000
Pine Mtn.120102010
Iron Mountain 2120132012

Canada Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.