BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Canada Warbler in New York has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Warbler has fallen sharply in New York: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Canada Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 93% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-93%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 93% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.37
20270.060.000.36
20280.040.000.34
20290.030.000.33
20300.020.000.32

Canada Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Canada Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N Wilmurt819981968
Sabattis719831966
Wanakena620241980
Dexter Lake619751968
Highmarket420251967
Inlet420171979
St Regis Fls420161977
Hope Falls319941968
North River320251970
Parishville320231997
Huntington219951995
S Berne220121967
Laurens220231969
Oneonta220111968
Oxford219711971
Vestal Ctr219811981
East Java220221969
Mckeever220231974
Blue Ridge S220101969
Newcomb220191971
Hopkinton220132013
Tupper Lake219721968
Balmat220071982
Downsville220181982
Somers119761976

Canada Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.