BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Warbler Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Canada Warbler in West Virginia has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1978.

13×Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Warbler Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Warbler in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Canada Warbler Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in West Virginia is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.06–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in West Virginia is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.06–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.390.050.72
20270.390.050.73
20280.390.050.73
20290.390.060.73
20300.400.060.73

Canada Warbler Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Canada Warbler in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glade Run 21020252003
Glady520252005
Glade Run320021988
Bemis320252004
Dailey120251975
Bowden120231993
Wymer120081996
Clear Creek119921992
Albright119701970
Meadowville120121991
Sleepy Creek119821982
Bismark120211990
Canaan119941980
Valley Head119851985
Three Forks119871978
Denmar120161980
Richwood120251980
Green Bank119931979

Canada Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.