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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Canada Warbler in Minnesota has surged: up 156% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+156%Since 1969
32Routes In State
57Years

Notable Canada Warbler Trends in Minnesota

long arc increasecomputed index

Canada Warbler has surged in Minnesota: up 156% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Canada Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Minnesota is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.36–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029
0.97Projected 2029 index
0.36–1.695% range
±39.6%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.950.351.6
20260.960.351.6
20270.960.361.6
20280.960.361.6
20290.970.361.6

Canada Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Canada Warbler in Minnesota.
Lockport1720241967
Hart Lake1220241967
Sawbill Lndg1020241973
Jordan920231993
Crane Lake620241978
Blackduck520222004
Red Lake420121997
Chisholm420242022
Cass Lake320161981
Cromwell320241969
Bemidji319791979
Sawbill Camp320241993
Sherry Lake220221970
Nett Lake220162016
Mahtowa220232023
Babbitt220231997
Nebish120231982
St Stephen119911991
Mille Lacs120112011
Pine River119921981
Hovland120241973
Floodwood120231967
Island Lake120172017
Cohasset119751973
Bena119771977

Canada Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichigannew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.