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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Canada Warbler in Minnesota has surged: up 156% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+156%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Warbler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Warbler has surged in Minnesota: up 156% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Canada Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Minnesota is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.36–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Minnesota is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.36–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.950.351.6
20260.960.351.6
20270.960.361.6
20280.960.361.6
20290.970.361.6

Canada Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Canada Warbler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lockport1720241967
Hart Lake1220241967
Sawbill Lndg1020241973
Jordan920231993
Crane Lake620241978
Blackduck520222004
Red Lake420121997
Chisholm420242022
Cass Lake320161981
Cromwell320241969
Bemidji319791979
Sawbill Camp320241993
Sherry Lake220221970
Nett Lake220162016
Mahtowa220232023
Babbitt220231997
Nebish120231982
St Stephen119911991
Mille Lacs120112011
Pine River119921981
Hovland120241973
Floodwood120231967
Island Lake120172017
Cohasset119751973
Bena119771977

Canada Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichigannew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.