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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Warbler Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Canada Warbler in Tennessee has surged: up 306% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+306%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Warbler Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Warbler has surged in Tennessee: up 306% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Canada Warbler Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Tennessee is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.08–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Tennessee is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.08–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19892030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.250.060.43
20270.250.070.44
20280.260.070.45
20290.270.080.45
20300.270.080.46

Canada Warbler Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Canada Warbler in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newfound Gap820251990
Cades Cove320171989
Tellico220251998
Fish Springs120171991

Canada Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.