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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Canada Warbler in North Carolina has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+6%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Warbler Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Warbler in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Canada Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in North Carolina is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.05–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in North Carolina is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.05–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.050.72
20260.390.050.72
20270.390.050.72
20280.380.050.72
20290.380.050.72

Canada Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Canada Warbler in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kyle1120241994
French Broad River820242001
N. Mills Riv719951994
Andrews619981994
Cherokee620242011
Linville520241976
Busick220021994
Todd120091996
Highlands120182008
Fontana120011984
Cullowhee119951974
Oteen119861984
Murphy120152014

Canada Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.