BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Warbler Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Canada Warbler in Michigan has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-5%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Warbler Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Warbler in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Canada Warbler Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Michigan is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±134.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Michigan is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.000.40
20260.170.000.39
20270.170.000.39
20280.170.000.39
20290.160.000.39

Canada Warbler Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Canada Warbler in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ensign520102006
Walloon Lake320041980
Herman220221983
Maple Grove219801973
Muskallonge220241968
Gilchrist220211974
Lake City219851985
Frederic219911980
Red Oak220121985
Hiawatha Nf220171992
Scott'S Marsh220092007
Harrietta120111992
Ontonagon119701969
Bergland120041982
Marenisco119981981
Bootjack120071997
Ned Lake120241987
Crystal Fls120172017
Gibbs City120091979
Ishpeming120231981
Brocky Lake120231980
Wilson120041985
Cunard120141991
Shingleton120171967
Creighton120231978

Canada Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaindianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.