BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Field Sparrow in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Field Sparrow Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Field Sparrow has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Field Sparrow Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 85% by 2030 — from 7.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-85%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 85% by 2030 — from 7.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.007.4
20271.80.007.1
20281.60.006.9
20291.30.006.7
20301.10.006.4

Field Sparrow Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft Pickett N3019951993
Blacksburg2820251988
Tryme2520251975
Nat Tunnel2520251981
Surry1920251977
Star Tannery1820251977
Newbern1619821968
Stickleyvill1619901975
Concord1520241967
Clinchport1419781967
Ft Pickett S1419951993
Natural Brid1320251974
Mannboro1320251967
Branchville1320241966
Taylorstown 21320252012
Newsoms1220241967
Brandy Station1220252017
Carters Brdg 21220252015
Dryden1220251991
Covington1120251966
Marion1119821976
Big Island1020251968
Ivanhoe1019681966
Iron Mountain 21020132012
Shipman920251969

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.