BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Field Sparrow in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Field Sparrow Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Field Sparrow has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Field Sparrow Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 87% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.00–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-87%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.90Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 87% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.00–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.007.1
20261.60.006.8
20271.40.006.6
20281.10.006.3
20290.900.006.1

Field Sparrow Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft Pickett N3019951993
Blacksburg2620241988
Nat Tunnel2420241981
Star Tannery1720241977
Tryme1620241975
Newbern1619821968
Stickleyvill1619901975
Natural Brid1520241974
Concord1520241967
Mannboro1420241967
Clinchport1419781967
Ft Pickett S1419951993
Branchville1320241966
Dryden1320241991
Newsoms1220241967
Amherst1120241967
Surry1120241977
Marion1119821976
Ivanhoe1019681966
Iron Mountain 21020132012
Covington920241966
Shipman920241969
Hebron920221981
Finchley920211994
Iron Mountain 3920232014

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.