BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Field Sparrow in Texas has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Field Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Field Sparrow in Texas. See the full index history below.

Field Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.39–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.39–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.39–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.461.8
20261.10.441.8
20271.10.421.8
20281.10.411.8
20291.10.391.8

Field Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rockspring2820241994
Dripping Spg2120241985
Boerne1720241967
Montell1720241995
Utopia1620241969
Fitzhugh1419831969
Eldorado1420231982
Bonner1419941994
Clarendon1320241968
Leakey1320241994
Prairie Mtn.1120171994
San Saba1020241971
Kempner1020241972
Indian Mtn720241976
Allen Creek720241994
Campbellton619721969
Adamsville620241972
Circle619681968
Valley Spgs420241976
Osage420091968
San Pedro420141997
Lockhart320241971
Oak Grove319861969
Harper320241969
Olney320231980

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.