BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Field Sparrow in Texas has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Field Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Field Sparrow in Texas. See the full index history below.

Field Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.40–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.40–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.40–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.461.8
20271.10.441.8
20281.10.431.8
20291.10.411.8
20301.10.401.8

Field Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Utopia4420251969
Boerne4120251967
Dripping Spg3220251985
Fitzhugh1419831969
Eldorado1420231982
Bonner1419941994
Clarendon1320241968
Rockspring1220251994
San Saba1120251971
Indian Mtn1120251976
Prairie Mtn.1120171994
Adamsville1020251972
Leakey1020251994
Allen Creek720251994
Campbellton619721969
Circle619681968
Montell620251995
Comanche620252014
Kempner520251972
Osage420091968
Lockhart320241971
Oak Grove319861969
Harper320251969
Selden320251968
Olney320231980

Field Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.